Editorial - D00M3D Article 1: Time Magazine
An editorial by
Sam Altersitz published on 2.29.2004
Predicting Nintendo's Doom or Fun and Profit/Web Hits!
Introduction
Part 1: Time Magazine
The PSP Factor
This is the first article being dissected for this series of editorials.
The introduction to this series can be found here. Please read the intorduction before reading this part, if you haven't already, as it will set up the facts and research for this part, and the next few parts.
A word of warning, there are a few curses in this editorial, and I don't pull punches when calling the author of the Time Magazine article a moron. If this offends you, then I suggest you stop reading here.
As always, you can send hate mail directly to me, or to our Denin, our Mailbag guy; or you can go to our forums and discuss your views on this there.
You know, there really isn't a shortage of them. But, I'm obviously going to ignore the biased D00M3D articles from sites that are Xbox specific, or PS2 specific. We expect them to predict Nintendo's d00m, much in the same way we expect Microsoft Windows oriented sites (surprisingly, there are quite a few of them praising the operating system) to bash Linux and other operating systems as doomed, and vice versa.
And, I'll warn you now: If you don't like sarcasm, you might as well stop reading this now. Thess sections are going to be rife with it. And I'm not pulling any punches when it comes to calling the authors idiots and such. These are my editorials. My opinion pieces. And, in my opinion, these guys are spewing shit from their mouths, and their fingers. I've got facts to back my statements up. They really don't. And, no, press releases from the companies saying how well they are doing is not proof, that's fluff; no matter what company releases the press release.
The first article we'll be looking at is from a mainstream media source, Time Magazine.
Dissecting the D00M!! D00M!! D00M!! Articles, Part 1: Time Magazine
The first article I'm going to look at is from
Time Magazine, which I feel has one of the funniest things said in it early on.
The very first paragraph recounts how Nintendo dominated, along with Sega, the game industry; and how pretty much one out of every two consoles during the Nintendo Vs Sega days was a Nintendo console, especially at the holidays. And, this is true. In the mid to late 1980's and early 1990's, there really were only two major players, Sega and Nintendo; the others who tried didn't get very far in the console business (even with some great games on those other systems).
Then Jim Fredrick goes on to start his second paragraph with the following sentence:
But the company's latest console, the GameCube, has proved to be an unmitigated disaster, giving this holiday season the potential to become the Winter of Iwata's Discontent.
You know what, Jim? Please, oh PLEASE let me have an 'unmitigated disaster' that has shipped almost 14 million units throughout the world, and helps bring in over $500 million in profits per year to me. I won't mind, really.
But, if Jimbo thinks that the GC is an 'unmitigated disaster', then what is the Xbox? The 'disastrous' console has been outselling the Xbox since before Jim's article was published, and did so for the entire month after it was published as well; it also outsold the Xbox in North America for all of 2003 according to NPD. The GameCube sells well in three markets, while the Xbox sells well in only two. The GameCube is still not in third place in the worldwide market; the Xbox is. The GameCube is sold at a small loss at the $99 price point; while the Xbox has helped Microsoft's Home and Entertainment Division to bleed through over $2 billion in under two and a half years. The GameCube has over double the amount of titles that have sold over one million units, worldwide, than the Xbox as well; the GameCube has 10 verified million plus worldwide sellers, while the Xbox has only four—and three of the four Xbox million plus sellers are launch titles, with another coming in 2002—none of the games released in 2003 for the Xbox have yet sold one million, or more, copies, worldwide; two titles released in 2003 for the GameCube have sold over 1 million units (well,
Zelda can be considered both 2002 and 2003; it was released in Japan in 2002, the rest of the world in 2003).
I hate to see what Jim thinks the Phantom will be, if the GameCube is an 'unmitigated disaster.' I guess that makes the Xbox Armageddon, and the Phantom will be the Complete Destruction of the Universe ™.
Nintendo has suffered such a string of bad news over the past few months and posted such disappointing financial results over the past few quarters that many investors, analysts and industry watchers are wondering whether the onetime industry giant can hit restart—or at least pause—in an increasingly competitive video-game industry.
Wow, so one bad half year in 41 years of being public is disappointing, eh? In a way it is, but let's compare to Sony and Microsoft for a second.
What about Sony losing more money, overall, in its last fiscal year than the money it lost, overall, in the fiscal year before that, Jimmeroo? That's two fiscal year overall losses for Sony in a row. Nintendo hasn't posted an end of fiscal year financial loss in 41 years, and if sales remain brisk, they won't post one this year either.
What about Microsoft consistently posting over $100 million dollars lost each quarter (every 3 months) in the division that holds the Xbox, Jimbob? Hell, Microsoft announced its overall profits fell by 17% last quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago, even with record revenue coming in. Let me give you three guesses as to what helped to cause that to happen.
Not only is Nintendo struggling to keep pace with its larger, better-funded rivals—Sony and Microsoft—in the console business,
Glad you mentioned the 'better funded' part, Jimmery. We all know that without Microsoft's monopoly position in the OS and Office Suite markets, they'd never be able to keep the Xbox afloat. Someone mentioned that if the Xbox was taking such losses at a company purely devoted to it, that it would be in trouble; when, in truth, it would already be dead and buried—no company can withstand $2.384 billion in losses on its main product in just over two years and survive. Luckily, Microsoft has money, from the only two products it has that make money.
And, the PlayStation series of consoles, and it's games, are almost the only thing keeping Sony afloat right now. Two straight years of financial losses isn't a good sign, especially after having good profits at the end of the year before the losses. Still, Sony does have billions in the bank, so if they can get their company back on track to making money, overall, they'll be fine.
But, let's also not forget that Nintendo isn't exactly a pauper, either. They have well over $6 billion in liquid cash in the bank. That doesn't compare to Microsoft's $50 billion liquid cash assets, true, but its well more money than Jimmy or I will ever see in our lives.
but its Game Boy division, Nintendo's previously unassailable monopoly in hand held games, is suddenly facing a host of formidable foes.
From where, Jimbo? The N-Gage? That thing hasn't even managed to sell through it's initial launch shipment of 400,000 units yet. From all reports, it hasn't even sold 100,000 units through retail yet.
Sony's as-yet unreleased PSP? It isn't out yet, Jimmy. And, knowing how Sony over-hypes specs, it won't feature nearly all the promised features when it is launched that it currently does now (the PSX had many features removed, and Sony didn't even let consumers know until 2 weeks before it was supposed to be released; and the PS2 certainly hasn't lived up to being able to 'render Toy Story in real time', or many of its other hyped up promises yet, either). Let's not forget that the price being quoted now is
around $450 at current exchange rates. I don't know about anybody else, but $450 for a hand held console is simply too much; the N-Gage's $300 price point certainly didn't help it's launch, so why should Sony believe that just because it has their name on it that they can sell something for $450?
What about the PSP's battery life? Optical drives take up more battery power, because they, you know, spin and have a moving laser to read them and stuff. Sony's been reluctant to talk about how much gamers will be paying in batteries for its hand held. If its battery life is shit, it won't sell. No one's going to pay over $300 for something they'll need to buy dozens of dollars of batteries for each month. All the Game Boys have had good battery life, and the GBASP has a built in rechargeable battery as well.
And we haven't even gone in to the hand held that won't fit in your pocket scenario that appears to be coming with the PSP. The dimensions quoted surely won't fit in any non-skaters' non-cargo pants. The GBA, and the GBASP, easily fit in most pockets.
And how durable is the thing going to be? From the current sounds of it, people better wrap it in bubble wrap when using it, so it won't break if they drop it. Besides, Sony's track record for making products that don't break has been going downhill for years. There's entire websites dedicated to the PS2's "
Disc Read Error" that happens to people all too often. I bet if the PSP is made cheaply, and starts breaking easily, the consumer backlash will be tremendous.
OK, I mentioned two possible competitors... where the rest of this 'host of formidable foes,' Jim? Two is not a host. Host, when used the context Jim says, means:
1. An army. 2. A great number; a multitude. So, Jim, where's the rest of this host, or are you using your 'journalistic imperative' to exaggerate two to equal an army?
Oh, and all past technologically better competitors to the Game Boy have failed, miserably. The N-Gage continues this, and it remains to be seen what will happen with the eventual release of the (sure-to-be-feature-reduced-before-launch) PSP.
Coming off its worst year in history, the company desperately needs a successful Christmas season if it is to regain the confidence of investors, who have pushed its stock down 24% over the past 12 months.
Funny, looks like they did have a successful Christmas season, Jim. Try not to choke on your own foot.
But a rebound looks unlikely.
See above, the paraphrased version is: GameCube outsells Xbox in North America in the crucial last calendar quarter, and Japan all year; outsells Xbox overall in North America in 2003, remains in second place worldwide.
As of June this year, Sony's PlayStation 2 had captured 74% of the market, leaving Nintendo's GameCube to split the scraps with console newcomer Microsoft and its Xbox at 13% apiece.
Wait, Jimmeroobob, I thought the GameCube was an 'unmitigated disaster?' Would this mean that by having an approximate equal market share to the Xbox mean you were either A. lying, or B. not able to control your need to make your article sound all hip and cool by using such a term, or C. just spewing shit from your mouth because you couldn't report your way out of a wet pater bag? Your lack of cross checking your facts, as well as contradictions to your own words really makes the case for you.
Online video games have been a false start so far, Iwata asserts, which is why he has no plans to lead Nintendo in that direction.
Seems to be true, Jimmy. With the newest numbers for Xbox Live, 5.4% of the Xboxes shipped are connected to it. Xbox Live sales flat lined until Microsoft started giving it away with each Xbox. From late April until December, Microsoft could not say any number higher than their previously stated 'around 500,000 subscribers.' Now they get to say 'around 750,000.' Good thing it sells so well, eh? Eight months of little to no discernible sales, then a rush when they give the online playing ability away? And the “rush” wasn't even near what Microsoft would have liked.
I'm wondering how many people will keep their trial Xbox Live subscriptions for a while, now that
Halo 2, which I'm sure is the title many of those new subscribers were looking forward to, has had its release date set as
"Fall 2004"; which is far later than the hoped March or April release Xbox owners, including myself, hoped/thought would come (well, I predict November, myself, but many other Xbox owners hoped for or genuinely beleived March or April as a release date). My bet is that most of the new subscribers, especially the free two-month ones, cancel until the release of
Halo 2. It'll be interesting to see if Microsoft can make their projected 1 million Xbox Live subscribers by June, especially since the game that would have ensured that number isn't due out until months after June.
And only 2.9% of the PS2s out there are connected to the Internet according to Sony. And the largest games for Sony's online gaming?
Madden and
SOCOM; all the other online games tend to get little traffic, even the
Tony Hawk's Pro Skater games, which were the first to go online on the PS2.
So, Jimmy, do you consider less than 10% of the installed bases of the PS2 and Xbox going online to not be a false start?
Despite its troubles, no one is seriously suggesting that Nintendo is going to be squeezed out of the hardware business almost overnight, as Sega was. Nintendo is sitting on $6 billion in cash and carries no debt, which could provide a war chest with which to outsource a competitive next-generation hardware system.
Wow, a reasonable statement of fact, except the outsourcing part, Nintendo isn't Microsoft (Microsoft outsources production of the Xbox to a third party). I'm ashamed of you, Jimmy, you were doing so well before this. Maybe this part is what Time means when they say “With reporting by Toko Sekiguchi “
The threats to its Game Boy monopoly are, at this point, hypothetical
Wait, Jimmy... I thought you said that the Game Boy was facing 'a host of formidable foes?' Make up your goddamn mind. Either it is facing a lot of stiff competition, or it isn't. It can't be both.
According to many experts, Nintendo's most likely route is to eventually follow Sega's lead: get out of the brutally competitive console business and focus on software.
Translation: NINTENDO IS T3H D00M3D!!!!111!!!111!!!
But, as was mentioned in your own article before, lack-of-proof-reading-boy, Nintendo has over $6 billion in the bank, no debt, and is selling consoles. When we look at what Nintendo is like today is compared to what Sega was like when they exited the hardware market, it's comparing apples to bullets (so different, they aren't even both fruits). Sega was coming off of failed add ons for the Genesis, the dismal failure of the Saturn, and being in the red for years. Nintendo, on the contrary, is overall in the black, has had successful consoles, and only killed off their N64 Bulky Drive (IE not a ton of add ons that failed).
By doing this Nintendo's growth might become limited, but the company could become a profitable boutique video-game brand that caters to children, newcomers and enthusiasts.
Translation: NINTENDO IS T3H KIDDI3!!!!!!111!!!!111!!!!
Besides, Nintendo is still profitable. A half fiscal year loss does not equal a full fiscal year loss. Brisk sales of hardware and software have poised Nintendo to be profitable for this fiscal year as well, even if the profit forecast has been reduced slightly. And, if games like
Final Fantasy: Crystal Chronicles, which is made by Square-Enix and published by Nintendo, and
Metal Gear Solid: The Twin Snakes, do well for early-in-the-calendar-year games, the chance of a profitable fiscal year for Nintendo will be high, Jimmy.
Every kid who's booted up Super Mario for the first time knows what happens when you run out of lives and can't secure enough gold coins: game over.
Funny, though, that that little "game over" screen isn't up on the TV screen yet, though, eh Jimmy? Given the way you reported your story in Time, I'm surprised they haven't handed you a pink slip over it; the fantastical representation you gave in your article is hardly that which is suitable for a news agency with a long journalistic history, such as Time. You're probably better off reporting for The National Enquirer over places like Time or Newsweek. At least in the Enquirer, people expect fantastical reporting with little to no checking on the facts.
Let me know how Batboy is doing in Iraq, will ya?
And, if the Enquirer won't take you, I'm sure you could become some PR lackey for Sony or Microsoft. You've already got the spin action working in your 'reporting,' so making PR statements should be easy as pie for you.
