News - 2006 Predictions Revisited
Posted by
Richard Brownell
at 05:36:19 PM EST on 12.31.2006.
Last year was the first year we did video game predictions. I put together a list of 15 things I guessed would happen in the video games industry in 2006. I also tacked on 10 not-so-serious predictions for good measure. Today I'm reporting on how accurate my guesses were.
1) Xbox 360 sales will soar in late January and February as people can finally get one. But ultimately, the shortage did put a huge dent into the hype machine and Xbox 360 will have to fight its battles with quality software, not Christmas hype. The Xbox 360 will not sell as well as the PS3 or Revolution in Japan in 2006, but has a chance in the US depending on release dates. For other regions, who knows?
Almost. Xbox 360s were in short supply beyond December 2005, so sales couldn't "soar." But I was right about a drought in software. And the 360 did in fact lose out to the PS3 and Wii in Japan.
2) The heat over the pre-E3 conferences will be the biggest yet and the conferences themselves will easily outdo last year's. Sony's showings will be most impressive looking and will be the "winner" for hype generation for the casual market
Almost. The hype the pre-E3 conferences was the biggest I recall, but Sony didn't win. In fact, many considered their pre-E3 show to be quite bad.
3) Microsoft's Xbox 360 E3 showings will be impressive, but the 360 will be under-hyped most of the year thanks to Sony and Nintendo
Right on. Without high caliber franchises to steal the spotlight, the 360 was regarded as yesterday's news compared to two upcoming consoles.
4) The PlayStation 3 launch will be similar to the Xbox 360 launch, with 2-3 standout games and a number of sports and racing titles doomed to be forgotten when they are replaced with much higher quality sequels a year later
Right on.
Resistance stands out as the game to have, but several delays prevented the PS3 from having other any other great launch games.
5) The Revolution launch will be for the fans, and by that we mean Nintendo fans. It will not have a Metal Gear Solid 4 or a Gears of War, but rather will impress with a new Mario and Super Smash Brothers accompanied by a new IP at launch and a handful of third party titles. In terms of games available at retail, it will be the smallest of the next-gen launches
Almost.
Twilight Princess is most assuredly for Nintendo fans and there were no standout third party games, but
Mario and
Smash Bros did not make launch. Plus,
Wii Sports is the smash hit for casual/non-gamers making Wii a system sought after by far more than Nintendo faithful.
6) Sega's games are already on GameTap and they will also attempt to put them on Xbox Live Arcade and Revolution's virtual console. If Microsoft and Nintendo are smart, they will welcome Sega's game library with open arms and both will attempt for exclusivity (and not receive it if Sega is smart).
Right on. Sega's back library will continue to make waves, but as I suspected, it's already made its way onto the Wii Virtual Console.
7) The Revolution's downloadable game library of all past Nintendo consoles will at the same time be considered awesome and a disappointment. Nintendo will make as many of its past games available as possible and include new levels, modes, and items. Third parties will not be as present at first due to the hassles of licensing and most will be for sale or packed with games (i.e. new Castlevania comes with a pass to download all past Castlevanias). The Revolution launch again will be mainly for Nintendo fans, past and present.
Wrong. The Wii Virtual Console at launch was considered awesome and disappointing, but Nintendo certainly didn't put as many games as possible up at launch. Of course, it was shortly after making these predictions that I realized it would be smarter for Nintendo to space out their library to guarantee they always have new releases.
8) The G4 network will continue its cancellation of all gaming and tech content and replace it with MTV and SpikeTV style content. In the face of two much better networks for that style of content and having lost its core fanbase of techies and gamers, the network will fold (this may be more likely in 2007)
Right on. How many games shows do they have left? Two? One? We'll see if they end up folding in 2007.
9) The future of the type of content G4 had is the web. Shows like The 1up Show will continue to rise in popularity and we may even see a business model and online "networks" of shows arise to leverage the popularity of such shows.
Right on. This is a bit difficult to measure, but each of the top three gaming sites has a popular weekly show now. Each has podcasts. And online networks like Revision3 have shows that include video game content as well.
10) The PSP will have a second coming as its game library builds up again, but it won't be enough to push it past the DS. Consumers will become tired of UMD movies and their sales and presence at retail will drop.
Right on. While I wouldn't say the PSP had a "second coming" it did have some popular releases this year. UMD movies are all but gone.
11) Many of the developers who spoke so highly of the Revolution will not show any game plans for it in 2006, instead using business sense based on GameCube performance to "wait and see" whether or not putting their ideas to market is worth it.
Right on. After seeing how well the Wii is selling, many developers will jump on the bandwagon, but for most of this year, the only Wii titles people heard and were excited about were from Nintendo.
12) After years of R&D, Sony either quietly cancels the proposed EyeToy wand/sword idea or launches the PS3 with it to toss some water onto the Revolution fire. We're betting on the former as Sony wouldn't want to have to ship an EyeToy 2 with every PS3, but you never know.
Almost. I don't think I can give this a "right on" but Sony does seem to be done with the EyeToy on PS2. In addition, they have
Eye of Judgement coming for the PS3, which, if successful, is probably a sign of things to come.
13) The middleware industry will continue its rapid growth as the need for cheap next gen game content creation tools are needed.
Right on. This is another one that is hard to measure, particularly viewing the industry as consumers. Many also disagree on what counts as middleware, but if one includes game engines, the middleware industry is certainly doing well.
14) Blu-Ray movies will not take off (in 2006), despite the PS3's success, because the market is not ready for a new format yet.
Right on. Neither HD movie format is making waves. Of course, if
this article about millions being upset that their new HDTVs don't display HD on their own is true, perhaps we'll see the next-gen DVD formats take off in 2007.
15) A trailer for Halo 3 will be shown. It will rock tremendously, but we won't get to play the game until 2007.
Almost. I don't know if we can count the recently released commercial as a trailer, but it didn't "rock tremendously." It just rocked a little.
That's it for our serious predictions. I won't go over each of the not serious predictions, but to our surprise a few [sort of] came true.
2) Now that Working Designs is gone, its former leader Victor Ireland will be hired on with Microsoft Game Studios to manage the localizations of Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey. They will be released in 2008 and 2009, respectively.
Victor Ireland did announce the creation of GaijinWorks, which supposedly will be working on Xbox 360 localizations. No further information is available.
6) The SpikeTV Video Game Awards will actually be somewhat legitimate instead of a holiday season advertisement with hosts and presenters who may or may not actually play video games.
Some say things are getting better. I say there is still a ways to go.
10) The Phantom Game Console will actually be released.
While the Phantom Game Console is not being released, the lapboard that was designed as its controller is.
So how did we do? 9 right ons, 5 almosts, and 1 wrong. Keep watching GAF in the next few days to see our predictions for 2007.
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mduo13 1.7.2007 at 12:53:19 AM
Yeah, I agree with darkstar. Even though I've barely played the Halo games, that trailer was pretty hot. Though entirely prerendered.
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darkstar2k 1.6.2007 at 01:48:10 AM
15) A trailer for Halo 3 will be shown. It will rock tremendously, but we won't get to play the game until 2007.
Almost. I don't know if we can count the recently released commercial as a trailer, but it didn't "rock tremendously." It just rocked a little.
Did you completly miss the trailer that was put out before? It did rock tremendously!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AzS59SLjtQ
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dizzy don mega 1.5.2007 at 11:05:25 PM
wow my prediction is that GAF IS ON A s***TY START FOR 2007. BORING WEBSITE NOW.
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bloodix 1.5.2007 at 09:20:43 PM
*still waiting* :P
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drumlord 1.4.2007 at 03:54:47 PM
bloodix: Some time before 2008.
Hopefully tonight.
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bloodix 1.4.2007 at 03:47:53 PM
so when will we see the 2007 predictions
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shippoyasha 1.3.2007 at 08:18:31 PM
I see. Sorry for the mistake.
But if there's anything worth talking about in terms of doubts for the 360, I'd say it's 2008 and 2009. Then again, we know little of what's planned for the Wii and PS3. So I guess it's moot.
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pixy misao 1.3.2007 at 04:19:47 PM
"scarecrow9 1.3.2007 at 02:22:54 AM
damn...I forgot to add "for Nintendo consoles(not handhelds)" But I was assuming people would connect GAF's prediction of 3rd party companies not supporting the Wii with my statement.
Anyway I meant Nintendo consoles."
Gamecube has a GBA adaptor to play games on your tv.
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drakken 1.3.2007 at 12:06:30 PM
shippoyasha, Rich is commenting on how accurate his predictions for 2006 were. When he says "late January and February," he's talking about 2006. These aren't predictions for 2007.
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proppat 1.3.2007 at 11:40:37 AM
scarecrow9: "the GBA is a handheld"
Buy a GBA player for the Gamecube and those GBA games magically become playable on your tv and look great too.
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joesteele 1.3.2007 at 08:55:23 AM
shippoyasha: that 360 prediction was from last year. Why do you think he stilled called the Wii "Revolution"? :P
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shippoyasha 1.3.2007 at 03:47:41 AM
"Defending G4 is like saying the being pro-Hitler or something... G4 took what good stuff Tech TV had, ruined it, and then started running COPS marathons. what the hell? "
It's not a matter of defending it really. I just find myself enjoying a show or two. And as much as the TV network isn't as good as it was, I don't think it has no hope. At least they got rid of that ridiculous Arena show.
As for this comment:
"1) Xbox 360 sales will soar in late January and February as people can finally get one. But ultimately, the shortage did put a huge dent into the hype machine and Xbox 360 will have to fight its battles with quality software, not Christmas hype. The Xbox 360 will not sell as well as the PS3 or Revolution in Japan in 2006, but has a chan"
Sorry, but I don't see how the hype machine will end in January or February. Are you NUTS? Halo 3 will probably come in November or December and a lot of high profile games, not forgetting the PS3/360 simul-launch Grand Theft Auto are making the cut. And considering the amount of 3rd party support (whether they are exclusive or not doesn't seem to matter since they are sharing them mostly with the PS3 and the 360 has the much better online support and is cheaper than the PS3). I wouldn't think the quality of the games would drop after FEBRUARY. That's just absurd. I'd actually expect more great games to come out after then.
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scarecrow9 1.3.2007 at 02:22:54 AM
damn...I forgot to add "for Nintendo consoles(not handhelds)" But I was assuming people would connect GAF's prediction of 3rd party companies not supporting the Wii with my statement.
Anyway I meant Nintendo consoles.
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terpfen 1.3.2007 at 01:21:20 AM
"the GBA is a handheld"
... And this invalidates my point how?
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scarecrow9 1.2.2007 at 11:34:32 PM
Terpfen:
the GBA is a handheld
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mduo13 1.2.2007 at 10:36:24 PM
eggmanim, that would be fine except that games like NES Soccer are taking up space out of those 1040 games, so some of the best titles may not make it to the VC because they're too busy putting crappy ones up.
I just hope they stay consistent, because that way they're bound to hit most of the good ones.
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bidingtime 1.2.2007 at 02:13:17 PM
As for the predictions, I don't think number 10 quite deserves a "right on", as PSP really didn't have any kind of second coming (in fact it mostly got worse as the year went on)...though I'll admit it did have some good games.
But I'd more or less agree with your interpretations of the rest, and your predictions had an impressive level of correctness overall.
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bidingtime 1.2.2007 at 02:08:30 PM
I look forward to the day when there are enough virtual console games that people quit complaining about it (3 years from now).
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terpfen 1.2.2007 at 12:27:42 PM
"I'm looking forward to the days, when I can get good 3rd party games from SNES days again."
Buy a GBA.
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eggmanimn 1.2.2007 at 01:17:33 AM
At 4 games per week, over a 5 year life period, the Virtual Console would have 1040 games available. Considering the number of good games that are still viable for re-release, I'd say that they're going at an almost perfect clip. 5 per week would probably be better though.
Still, they aren't always consistent. Last week we had 5 games and today we got 2.
Also, Nintendo and Sega need to update their sites for January. I'd like to know what VC games to expect for the month.
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wellness 1.2.2007 at 12:10:48 AM
I'm looking forward to the days, when I can get good 3rd party games from SNES days again.
Heck a couple more NES game would be appreaciated. I mean am I wrong in thinking between the NES, SNES, N64, TG-16 and Genesis just releasing three to four games a week, they being too conservative?
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scarecrow9 1.1.2007 at 09:18:11 PM
Nice predictions guys.
I'm really looking forward to the day 3rd party companies will support Nintendo like they did in the Super Nintendo days...
Anyway much gaming to us all.
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thehawk 1.1.2007 at 08:14:17 PM
This was a fun article. I'm excited to see the next set of predictions.
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mar 1.1.2007 at 06:42:58 PM
I find Mr. Brownell's grading of his own predictions suspect at best. Like slapping 'Almost' on a bunch of predictions that are essentially wrong. The few that are right are complete gimmies - "PS3 launch will suck; Microsoft loses thunder; PSP won't suck as much as last year." You don't say.
No foresight displayed here.
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windstar 1.1.2007 at 05:17:32 PM
I suspect Nintendo this year will retain its high profitability margins, but perhaps not gain the market lead in the console race.
I suspect the 360 sales will pick up in the coming months as Halo 3 approaches its release date. Its funny, the system has sold 6-8 million copies and Sony expects hit that number by March of this year.
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legendarysword 1.1.2007 at 05:14:47 PM
Make less conservative predictions this year. Put some balls on the line!
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true 1.1.2007 at 04:16:32 PM
I don't 100% agree with some of those "right-ons".
What's this years predictions?
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bloodix 1.1.2007 at 03:04:52 PM
I agree with the G4 predictions... Too many Mtv like shows on it now.. At least theres still XPlay, Attack of the Show(which is better then when it first came on tv), and Star Trek: TNG(well i really only like this verson of the show.)
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drumlord 1.1.2007 at 01:10:07 PM
terpfen: I didn't give those labels. I more found those as noteworthy anecdotes of this year. Note that they weren't included in the final count at the bottom. And I agree Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey aren't relevant; I wasn't the one that mentioned those.
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retro 1.1.2007 at 01:07:30 PM
I predict 2007 will be the last year Graphics can sell systems. There will always be eyecandy, but the backlash against these 'games' with nothing but graphical glitter and completely inept design concepts is coming, and right quickly.
We'll also start to see the first stages of "Independant Game Development", in the same vein as Indie films. The first rumblings can be seen in Microsoft's XNA project. There will always be large studios like Capcom, Konami, and Square, but very soon all of the small companies are going to go belly up in favor of highly-mobile, loosely organized game development cowboys. The tools are in their infant stages now, and the knowledge can be learned without any kind of formal education. Expect to see the most radical, concept-shattering and wildly entertaining games come from the gunslingers.
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terpfen 1.1.2007 at 01:06:46 PM
drumlord, I'd say you were wrong about Victor Ireland as well. You specifically predicted he would work for Microsoft Game Studios--that hasn't happened. Whether or not Gaijinworks gets the rights to Blue Dragon and/or Lost Odyssey isn't really relevant.
Looking forward to the 2007 predictions.
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drumlord 1.1.2007 at 01:04:18 PM
I wouldn't say I was flat out wrong. Third parties weren't present and it was stated that licensing issues had come into play. But I changed it to wrong since it was pretty off for most of it.
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yazarc25 1.1.2007 at 12:21:24 PM
I think "Almost" is stretching it for #7. Besides, the "awesome, yet disappointing selection"(which is an opinion), you're flat out wrong on that prediction.
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pixy misao 1.1.2007 at 11:24:33 AM
I do think that Nintendo will have a great fiscal year, hopefully they spring SSBB on us sooner rather than later (as aside from downloads Mario and Metroid won't be out until fall).
Sony will still be scrambling to make more PS3 consoles however to the average consumer the cost will still seem far too high, and blue ray and HD are still a long way from becoming mainstream.
Xbox 360 will still be riding high off of Gears of War, however once that dies down the only thing that will retain gamer interest in the console will be the over-hype of Halo 3 (which I predict will be somewhat of a disappointment).
Also the Castlevania movie will have a good opening weekend provided that it's released without much competition, (which may be near impossible this year). A new Castlevania will be announced and show later (probably for the Wii) but we won't see it until 2008. Meanwhile the year will be filled with Castlevania downloads, from Symphony of the Night on Live Arcade and possible PS3-PSP download, to Castlevania 1-3, Bloodlines, Dracula X SNES and possibly the 64 games available for download on the Wii. Iga will talk about Rondo being re-released, but he'll have another excuse as to why it won't be.
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drumlord 1.1.2007 at 10:00:22 AM
I've been thinking about 2007 predictions. This is the big year that will pretty much decide the direction this generation goes. Will PS3 become market leader? Will Wii surprise people and take the lead? Does the 360 have a chance in Japan? 2006's predictions were easy compared to 2007. I don't feel like it's safe to say any of the consoles will become the leader without just blowing hot air.
I figured predicting the launches were safe and those became "almosts" this year. So I'll have to come up with some way of predicting such unknown factors without explicitly saying "The ____ will sell the most systems this year" because we have professional analysts to make s*** up, not me ;)
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joesteele 1.1.2007 at 09:35:57 AM
heh, how about we have a post where we mention the things that happened during 2006 that none of us could have predicted? (Death of E3 clearly number 1 on the list, the sixaxis was probably predicted by someone though announced than we thought, etc)
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mahew 1.1.2007 at 09:29:34 AM
I think Nintendo surprised completely everyone with the Revolution / Wii in 2006. Even Nintendo fans had been settling into the "second console" strategy, but in 2006, Nintendo came out swinging and suddenly the tone was completely changed. Nintendo really sweeped the crowd at E3, and despite some small hiccups, have been doing really well all year. Now the Wii has the most potential to become the seventh generation's number one console, and there were very few people that could have seriously expected that in 2005, even after the controller was revealed.
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mduo13 1.1.2007 at 07:21:18 AM
On the subject of prediction #7, one of the most disappointing bits of news that barely got anywhere this past year was how the VC games are all exact ports of downloadable games, with no online play, extra items, or (so far) special freebies or bonuses. I think we'll see at least the freebies next year, but the rest don't look hopeful any more.
And yeah, the Wii's launch was much bigger than anyone expected.
I'll post some 2007 predictions in the 2007 thread. Those should be fun and interesting.
By the way, you guys could also do a "Biggest Surprises of 2006" article to recap what has happened this past year that almost nobody was expecting - such as the Sixaxis, the Wii name, and the Burger King games.
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animetayl 1.1.2007 at 05:36:23 AM
yaztimbenzo: Are those predictions, or are those what you're hoping will come true? A few of those seem a little TOO crazy, but I guess it never hurts to hope. You can gloat if you're right, and be disappointed if you're wrong.
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yaztimbenzo 1.1.2007 at 02:29:12 AM
it's interesting how most of the predictions came true and almost true.
some of my own predictions:
1- Wii will be #1 by the year's end
2- PS3 won't pass 360 in America
3- SE will announce a FFVII game for Wii
4- SE will release a port of FFVII on DS
5- MS will release an uber 360 package that will contain Halo 3 and will retail for $349
crazy stuff but crazy stuff happened last year too.
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windstar 1.1.2007 at 02:08:18 AM
Actually, Microsoft Game Studios has already announced they're bringing Lost Odyssey and Blue Dragon stateside.
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rurounizel 1.1.2007 at 01:14:10 AM
My predictions/wishful thinking for 2007
1) Dragon Quest IX on the DS will cause riots in Japan, resulting in many injuries and maybe even a casualty or two...
2) Gaijinworks will announce it's first game is "Blue Dragon".
3) Sega will announce a Jet Set Radio game for the Wii
4) Nippon Ichi Soft. will show off "Makai Wars" for the PS3 and announce a Japanese release date of Oct. 17th.
5) Sega will re-show off Shenmue Online and Sakura Taisen Online, only to tell us neither will come to the US
6) Square-Enix will announce a new Final Fantasy VII game, but it will not be a remake.
7) Square-Enix will announce a Dragon Quest VI remake for the DS.
8) Sonic the Hedgehog will be announced as a playable character in Super Smash Bros. Brawl.
9) Nintendo will announce a new Nintendogs game for the DS, as well as a new Pikmin game.
10) Bungie will delay Halo 3 to mid-2008.
11) Some Japanese person will try to make a sex-game for the Wii.
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marik 1.1.2007 at 01:12:09 AM
Wow, I totally remember this article last year. You were really accurate. Awesome job on this. I was so excited to see if the next one was right on or not. Can't wait to see 2007 predictions.
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mcbride 1.1.2007 at 01:00:03 AM
Nice job, looking forward to this year's predictions.
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bjork 1.1.2007 at 12:58:32 AM
Defending G4 is like saying the being pro-Hitler or something... G4 took what good stuff Tech TV had, ruined it, and then started running COPS marathons. what the hell?
My prediction for 2007 is that Streets of Rage 2 will be downloadable somehow somewhere, and I will purchase the means to do so.
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windstar 12.31.2006 at 07:17:52 PM
As far as game engines go, many still seem to be in development for the next gen. SE has got the White Engine, and I doubt they'll stick with it for only the two FF titles upcoming. Level-5 has their White Knight engine as well. And this year, Zelda TP was using the Wind Waker engine.
Unreal's engine so far, got used for Gears of War (developed by the same company), and Vanguard is using the Unreal engine. So while there are engines in development or have been made, not a lot of them have been used outside of their creator's development studios. It depends, I think whether it'll be cheaper/easier to develop a brand new engine for the game, or to buy the middleware engine and work with your game there.
I could see movie studios getting into middleware development in order to produce their movie franchises. I could also see Oblivion's new engine get some use if the company decided to outsource it. These days, many middleware engines are open-source for the modding community to mess around with. Which is great, but would major publishers consider using them for their upcoming games?
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daetrin 12.31.2006 at 06:48:27 PM
Well the little card I got to fill out while waiting in Line at Target on release day listed (in this order) Madden NFL 07, Legend of Zelda, Towy Hawk, Super Monkey Ball, Need for Speed, Red Steel, Rayman, Trauma Center, Cars, SpongeBob, Call of Duty 3 and Excite Truck. I know there were several games that were in the store but didn't make the list, i got Dragonball Z and considered Rampage, and there were a few others that I wasn't interested in and don't really remember. I believe that included the Marvel and Avatar games though i couldn't swear to it.
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drumlord 12.31.2006 at 06:37:32 PM
Typically, when you are making predictions, you do so on things you truly believe will happen. I could not truly say what would happen with sales in the US and I felt I had a pretty good handle on Japan. That has nothing to do with bias.
And gaming "runs the gamut" of the network? I guess I must be misinterpreting their programming. I see two gaming shows, one that occasionally talks about games, and then I see 11 shows unrelated to gaming. If that's wrong, maybe they should update their network. And where did I say I "intentionally want them to fold"? That's you reading into things. I'm merely showing my interpretation of the decisions and direction of the network since it started in 2002. My prediction of canceled game programming came true. In addition, it was announced in October that G4's operations would be consolidated with the E! network. Perceived bias is irrelevant.
daetrin: good point. I'm not sure of the exact numbers since some titles came out at launch, some a week later or beyond. It is true that the Wii got more than expected (though who could have expected so many games based on 3D kids movies all at once? :P )
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daetrin 12.31.2006 at 06:34:02 PM
The reasoning for docusing on 360 sales in Japan specifically was that that was what their prediction focused on. It would have been more impressive if they'd made a wider prediction and still gotten it right, but they should only be reviewing the accuracy of what they said, not trying to re-interpret and then justify what they meant.
As for the predictions, i'm not so sure that #5 deserved as "almost" due to the bit at the end. "In terms of games available at retail, it will be the smallest of the next-gen launches" What were the launch libraries for the 360 and the PS3? I was surprised about the number of games available for the Wii at launch.
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shippoyasha 12.31.2006 at 05:48:23 PM
I'm sorry, but I see way too many biases throughout this article.
For one, I don't get the reasoning for talking about sales only in Japan. The 360 did sell pretty well throughout the year around the world and that's why the Japanese developers are making more former PS3 exclusives available for the 360.
And "G4 only has 1 or 2 game related shows"? Huh? They at least have four or five running and game related programming still seems to run the gamut of the entire network. Even their Attack of the Show tends to focus mostly on the games including internet-culture and the like. And why the heck would anyone intentionally want them to fold? Sure, their programming doesn't have the beef it did in the Tech TV days, but I don't think it's that bad. X-play in itself salvages it IMO.
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drumlord 12.31.2006 at 05:38:38 PM
Feel free to tell me I was actually wrong about some things. Let's have a good discussion here. However, try to keep things to 2006, as we'll be doing a 2007 predictions article and we can discuss the coming year there.